Man, do I love a good showdown. When I was a kid, when the Rams played the Cowboys and Vikings, I was keyed up a little more. Dodgers-Reds in the 1970s, those were always playoff-like atmospheres. Lakers-Celtics in the ‘80s, honestly, I don’t know if there’s a team I hated more than those Celtics.

This weekend, the scheduling gods aligned to bring us some incredible games. Tonight the Bills-Patriots brings with them memories of that virtuoso performance that Josh Allen had last January in the playoffs, when he led Buffalo on a 47-17 destruction without punting the ball. Chiefs-Bengals reminds us of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase going absolutely nuclear in Week 17, championship week in the fantasy football calendar. Then the Bengals’ comeback in the AFC title game a month later became legend in the land of Skyline Chili.

There are three games with the Over/Under at above 50. Weather, while cold in many outdoor stadiums, won’t bring my precipitation nor heavy winds. It’s setting up like a weekend that could see some points scored, and plenty fantasy points for your rosters.

Here’s a game-by-game breakdown with fantasy and DFS implications for the games. Calling out one key player per team, and I’ll tell you if I’m ADENTRO or AFUERA on him. Let’s start on some Thursday Night Football. Vamonos!

BUF (8-3) @ NE (6-5)
BUF -4 / 43.5
36

BUF
JOSH ALLEN
Allen appeared mortal in a Week 13, 14-10 loss that was basically played in a Buffalo icebox/windstorm. If Allen couldn’t throw in those conditions, no human could. But after that, he played against the Patriots twice more, throwing for 300+ yards both games and totaling 8 TDs, including 5 in 47-17 playoff win. Allen has slowed down after a scorching start, with only one 300+ or 30-point game since putting up 329-3-0 vs. KC in Week 6. The Patriots are #4 and allowing 208.5 passing YPG to the QB, though recently they have gotten gouged. Kirk Cousins went for 299-3-1 on Thanksgiving in prime time. In Week 8, Zach Wilson threw fir 355-2-3. There is a big game coming for Stefon Diggs, as Justin Jefferson (9-139-1) and Garrett Wilson (6-115-0) had good days against New England. It’ll be cold, but wind won’t be an issue. Allen has come up big against the Belichick D in the past in neutral weather conditions. ADENTRO.

NE
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON
There is no Damien Harris this week, so I’m piling on Stevenson wherever I have him. And even paying up in the captain spot in a showdown lineup. Here are his touches the last 4 games: 23-18-21-16. He has only one finish below RB14 since Week 3. He’s #4 with 59 targets and #3 with 50 receptions, and has just one game under 56 receiving yards since Week 7. It’s almost a letdown that he’s just RB8 on the season. Will he get all the RB load or will NE play games with us? In a game with playoff implications, with Gillette Stadium lit up in prime time, I’m betting that Stevenson goes off this game. Buffalo is allowing 158.6 scrimmage YPG to RB, with Jamaal Williams 18-66-1 and D’Andre Swift turning 4 receptions into 24 yards. Dalvin Cook (Week 10: 14-119-1)

and Aaron Jones (Week 8: 157 yards on 24 touches) had big weeks against the Bills. The Patriots need to control the clock with the run to keep Allen off the field, and Stevenson is the grinder to do it. ADENTRO. 

KC (9-2) @ CIN (7-4)
KC -2 / 52.5

43
KC

PATRICK MAHOMES ($8300)
In yet another chapter of young gun AFC QBs locking horns this season, we’re coming into this game asking the question: Was the second half letdown in the AFC Championship Game an aberration or did Cincy figure Mahomes out? If the Bengals figured out Mahomes that day, no one has followed suit. Mahomes is top 6 among fantasy QBs in 7 of his last 8 games. He has 300+ passing yards in 6 games since “only” going for 292-4-0 in Week 5 vs. the Raiders. He’s QB1 with 26.3 FPG so far. To give that some context, in his 2018 MVP season Mahomes put up 26.1 FPG. He’s on pace for 45 TD passes. This looks very much like this could be a shootout, even as the Bengals are #12 against the QB, allowing 249.5 passing YPG. Keep in mind that Lamar Jackson was the last elite QB they faced, and he put up19-32-174-1-1 and 12-58-0 rushing in Week 5. Ryan Tannehill was the best of recent QBs they faced, and he went 22-34-291-0 last week. Expect a big game from Travis Kelce, who is Mahomes’ main man in the big games. Pat Freiermuth went 8-79-0 on 11 targets in Week 11. Kelce at $7900 is an expensive stackable option, though JuJu Smith-Schuster at $5700 is quite tempting. ADENTRO.

CIN
JOE BURROW ($6900)
The great memories that Joe Shiesty must have when he’s on the opposite sideline from Mahomes. Last year, after destroying BAL with 525-4-0 in Week 16, Burrow laid waste to the Chiefs with 446-4-0 in what was the championship week for the fantasy football playoffs. He can get back up there again, and how has college buddy Ja’Marr Chase again at his side. Burrow is QB1 in three of the last six games, with 17 total TDs (3 rushing) in that span. He had a high of 481-3 vs ATL in Week 7, which was the last game with Chase. Will Chase be 100% utilized? I think they’ll be selective with him, because I just can’t see him going from being on crutches a week ago to running anywhere near 100% of routes. I like Tee Higgins in this one, as here are his lines the last two games: 9-148-0 and 7-114-1. The Chiefs may be #7 vs. the QB, allowing 179.8 passing YPG, but Bryce Perkins (100 pass yards) and Malik Willis (80 pass yards) were in that run. Justin Herbert going 23-30-280-2-1 in Week 11 is the best comp. The Burrow-Higgins stack (14100 total) could be good play if Chase (7900) is too pricey. ADENTRO. 

LAC (6-5) @ LV (4-7)
LAC -1.5 / 50.5
DOME

LAC
KEENAN ALLEN (6500)
Game #3 back from injury, is he all the way back? He played 59 of 66 snaps in Week 12 after going 44 of 65 snaps in Week 11. He ran 49 routes last week, just behind Joshua Palmer (53), and Allen finished with a respectable line of 5 catches for 49 yards and a score (7 targets). The Raiders are #15 against the WR and are allowing 252.2 passing YPG. Here are how some slot WRs have done recently against the Raiders:

Tyler Lockett: 3-68-1

Parris Campbell: 7-76-1

Christian Kirk: 8-76-1

LV
JOSH JACOBS
Is he healthy? That’s the only question, as he’s on the injury report with ankle and calf problems. Pro Football Reference lists that Jacobs is just the 10th player to put up over 300+ scrimmage yards in a game, going 33-229-2 and 6-74-0. The most recent was Julio Jones with 300 in 2016. Here are Jacobs’ touches the last four games: 20-27-27-39. The Chargers getting trampled for 142.2 rushing YPG to the RB, with only the Texans worse. James Conner went for 120 yards in Week 11 and Isiah Pacheco preceded him with 107. These are not household names. What will the NFL rushing leader (1159 yards) do to them? If healthy, he’s going to put up quite the encore to his masterful performance. ADENTRO. 

JAX (4-7) @ DET (4-7)
JAX -1 / 51.5
DOME

JAX
CHRISTIAN KIRK (6300)
With so much uncertainty at Jacksonville in the RB room – Will Travis Etienne play? If he doesn’t play, who will be the lead ballcarrier? – this game could become a passing fest. Here are Kirk’s targets the last five games: 10-7-9-12-9. He was at 8-76-1 and 9-105-2 before he had a dud at 4-46-0 last week. Will the big drive from Trevor Lawrence fuel this team for the rest of the season? Detroit is just #32 and giving up a whopping 219.4 receiving YPG to the WR position. Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Wan’Dale Robinson, Isiah McKenzie all have had big games against the Lions. Plenty receivers did their damage against the Lions from the slot, where Kirk operates plenty. After Zay Jones had such a big game, it’s Kirk’s turn. ADENTRO. 

DET
AMON-RA ST. BROWN (7100)
With 48 targets in the last five games, St. Brown is very much getting elite usage from the Lions. Here are his last three games:

10-119-1 
7-76-0
9-122-1

The Jaguars are JAX are #22 vs. the WR, allowing 274 passing YPG. DeSean Jackson’s long bomb last week against the Lions shows they can get beaten deep. Davante Adams’ dominant game of 10-146-2 against Detroit shows they can give up yardage in chunks repeatedly. I have St. Brown on a couple important teams, and I’m starting him with full confidence there and in DFS. ADENTRO.

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