November 19, 2022

AYA WEEK 11, PART 2: MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS IN MEXICO. ARRIBA!

After seeing the celebration of international football in Germany, with a rabid atmosphere and thousands of fans singing “Take me home, country road” like they were in West Virginia, it’s clear that the NFL has a worldwide following.

Mike Williams has been sitting far too long for the Chargers’ liking, and is in line for a heavy target share on Sunday Night Football in a game that could shoot out with the Chiefs.

Now they’re taking the party to Mexico. Oh, the party will be something spectacular. The legendary Estadio Azteca will be packed beyond belief, and fans will have not just jerseys for the 49ers and Cardinals, but practically all NFL teams. Yes, the NFL is huge in Mexico and all Latin America. I can’t wait for this party.

And I can’t wait to break down the late Sunday games, including what could be a fun game to end the day between the Chiefs and Chargers who always seem to put on n electric display. Here are the point totals for the last three games featuring these teams: 54, 62 and 51. The action will be hot at SoFi Stadium.

This breakdown is pretty caliente, too. Let’s jump into it. FYI, all per-game averages are since Week 6, to give a more recent look at how teams are faring against the opposition. Arriba Mexico, and time for AYA Week 11, Part 2! Salud!

LV (2-7) @ DEN (3-6)
DEN -2.5 / 41.5
46 & Clear

RAIDERS
JOSH JACOBS has 20 and 27 touches the last two weeks, finishing with 87 and 106 scrimmage yards with 1 TD over those games. He is still the lead caballo, and will get a heavy workload against the Broncos, who sold out to stop Derrick Henry last week, limiting him to 19-53-0. However, before that Travis Etienne went for 24-156-1 in Week 9. The big difference in this game is that the Broncos will have to respect Davante Adams in the passing game, so Jacobs will have room to run. Denver is #19 vs the RB and is allowing 98 rush YPG. ADENTRO.

DENVER
COURTLAND SUTTON will take over lead WR duties with Jerry Jeudy declared out with an ankle injury. Jumping into that role last week, Sutton had 6-11-66-0 against the Titans. That was his first game with 10+ targets since Week 5. Here are the numbers for the WR1 the last 2 weeks against Las Vegas: Michael Pittman 7-53-0 and Christian Kirk 8-76-1. The Raiders are giving up 139.2 receiving YPG and are #18 against the WR. At altitude, in front of a home crowd that will be primed for a division rival in what’s becoming a lost season for both teams, look for Sutton to get fed. ADENTRO

DAL (6-3) @ MIN (8-1)
DAL (-1.5) / 47.5
DOME

COWBOYS
This game has major shootout potential, and I like the over. CEEDEE LAMB went for 11-15-150-2 last week against a very good Green Bay secondary. That was his first game with 10+ targets since Week 6. The Vikings are #32 and allowing 244.5 YPG to the WR position with some huge games from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (306 combined yards), Hopkins/Moore (251) and Diggs/Davis (221) last week. Lamb is the clear top target for the Cowboys. Big game coming. ADENTRO with a bullet. 

VIKINGS
Major CALIENTE game alert for DALVIN COOK, who has scored TDs in five straight games and gone over 100 scrimmage yards in three of them. That 81-yard run last week was simply a thing of beauty, and the Cowboys have gotten beaten up for 154.6 scrimmage YPG. They’re in the middle, #14, against the RB because they’ve only allowed 3 TDs to the position. The last two weeks have seen a lot of road grading against the Cowboys, with Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon (203 total yards) and David Montgomery/Khalil Herbert (152) teaming up for some big numbers. ADENTRO

CIN (5-4) @ PIT (3-6)
CIN -4 / 41
30 degrees

BENGALS
Does TYLER BOYD get to feed the narrative to start your slot WRs against the Steelers? In the last two games, Boyd has trailed Tee Higgins in targets, 14-11. He went a pedestrian 4-33-1 in Week 1 vs. the Steelers, though that was with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup. Chase is still rehabbing his hip. T.J. Watt is back to wreak havoc on defense, so does that mean bad news for Joe Burrow behind what’s been a shaky Cincinnati O-line? Pittsburgh is #25 and is giving up a sizable 171.5 YPG vs. the WR, though much of the damage was done by A.J. Brown (6-156-3) and Hill/Waddle (160 combined yards). The renewed pass rush got 10 pressures and 2 sacks on 33 dropbacks last week against the Saints. That is going to cause Burrow to have to get the ball out quickly. That’s going to mean Burrow’s looking for Boyd. ADENTRO

STEELERS
NAJEE HARRIS came out of the bye week and looked his best this year, going for 20-99-0. He only saw 1 target that he didn’t catch. Jaylen Warren, however, was still a factor with 12 touches for 77 yards. Is Harris finally over that foot issue from training camp? The Bengals are #23 against the RB, allowing 137.4 scrimmage YPG. Lately they’ve been beaten up by Nick Chubb for 23-101-2 on Halloween and Alvin Kamara turned 25 touches into 124 scrimmage yards in Week 6. This at least makes you feel good about starting Harris, because you invested a high pick in him. I’ll probably be AFUERA on him for DFS, though. I don’t love the carry split. I’d probably lean toward the Pittsburgh WRs and Burrow/Mixon/Boyd on the Cincinnati side. 

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
KC (7-2) @ LAC (5-4)
KC -6.5 / 50

CHIEFS
ISIAH PACHECO had what looks like a coming-out party last week, as he was on the field for 18 rush snaps and finished with a line of 16-82-0. Though he had a fumble, that didn’t appear to affect his touches. Jerick McKinnon was #2 with 3 snaps on running plays. Lo siento CEH and your 0 snaps. Pour one out. Is this the changing of the guard at RB? Whether it is or isn’t, I’m ADENTRO on Pacheco against a Charger D that’s allowing 145.5 rush YPG and is #31 against RBs. On top of that, they were down to three D-linemen by the end of the last game. They had to sign free agents this week just to fill out the roster. I like Pacheco’s chances for a bigger game than last week. Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell had 127 combined rush yards last week. The trio of Atlanta backs totaled 177 yards in Week 9, preceded by Ken Walker’s blistering line of 167-2. The Chargers are going to keep giving the yards up in chunks on the ground. 

CHARGERS
MIKE WILLIAMS was a full participant in practice by Friday, so it’s looking like he’ll play. So that’s why Dr. Edwin Porras wanted him so badly from me in the Fantasy Points staff league. The Chargers will welcome Williams with open arms. Justin Herbert had a 6.6 ADOT last week. That’s just not what you want for someone with so much arm talent. In his last healthy game, Williams saw an ADOT of 10.7 by himself. This is just what Herbert ordered for a big game against the Chiefs, who are #28 and giving up 167 YPG to WRs. Christian Kirk put up 9-105-2 last week, and Brandon Aiyuk went 7-82-0 in Week 7. The Chargers need to take some shots and Williams is the guy. ADENTRO.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL IN MEXICO
SF (5-4) @ AZ (4-6)
SF -8 / 43.5
61 degrees

49ERS
Arriba Mexico! Saludos to compadre Mauricio Gutierrez, who will be providing coverage from Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. He’ll be as worked up as GEORGE KITTLE is going to be on the national stage. The last four games have been uneven for Kittle, as these are his targets: 10-9-5-2. He did go for 6-98-1 in Week 7 vs. KC. That may be the starting point against an Arizona defense that’s just #32 in FPG and RZ FPG, allowing 68.4 receiving YPG to TEs. The Cardinals even revived Tyler Higbee last week as he went 8-73-0. Noah Fant (5-96-0) and Juwan Johnson (5-32-2) have also had solid games against the Cardinals. I know there are plenty of weapons for the 49ers, but this is setting up like sizzling carne asada on the grill. ADENTRO.  

CARDINALS
JAMES CONNER was on the field for 65 of 68 total snaps last week, a 96% snap share. He finished 21-69-2 rushing and 3-17-0 receiving. Then the Cardinals released Eno Benjamin. Does that mean more Keontay Ingram, or Conner all day? Arizona still has Kyler Murray battling a sore hammy, so it looks like Colt McCoy will start under the bright lights. This is not a good matchup for Conner, however. The 49ers have allowed a high of 59 rush yards this season and are #2 vs. RB with 70.2 rush YPG given up to the position. They held down Austin Ekeler to 6-24-0 rushing, and the Rams finished with 47 total rush yards the week before. Thou shalt not run against the 49ers. AFUERA.

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