Familia, first off let’s keep a good thought and send out some prayers for the people in Florida and up the East Coast who are dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. I have familia and friends out there, and thankfully they’re all healthy and safe. But some of them are dealing with major damage from the hurricane. I hope the rebuilds go well. Salud to you all.

Tough to transition to the games, but that’s what we’re here for. I tried something different this week, with game capsules. Mis ojos got too big for my stomach, and I got through half of them before I just had to publish. Next week, I’ll try something different or maybe just start writing a lot earlier. Vamos a veer. But it’s Week 4, and time to start saying it’s not too “early” anymore. We’re going to see some definite trends to attack and avoid. Let’s get to it. Happy Week 4. Salud! 

MIN (2-1) @ NO (1-2)
MIN -2.5 / 43.5
London Game
Weather is not expected to be an issue in this game across the Pond. If Dalvin Cook is going, you play him. No question. The Saints have been tough against the run over the past few years, but Cordarelle Patterson and Christian McCaffrey have surpassed 100 yards on the ground against New Orleans thus far. Don’t know if I trust him in DFS, though. Is Justin Jefferson going to break out in the Superdome? He’s averaging almost 10 targets per game, so the volume will be there. After getting only 6 looks last week, I can see the Vikings peppering their star wideout to get him going. Adam Thielen ran the same number of routes as JJ last week (42-40), but it’s hard to trust a second WR on the Vikings when the Saints have yet to give up 100 yards receiving to anyone. K.J. Osborn is running routes nearly as often as JJ and Thielen, but it’s hard to expect there to be three WRs getting significant targets in New Orleans. And that’s why I’m saying Afuera on Irv Smith, who has a tough matchup against a defense that held Kyle Pitts to a 2-19 line in the opener.

It’s not looking good for Jameis Winston, who has as many things hurting as Evel Knievel would after one of his stunts misfired. That would mean that Andy Dalton is getting the start, and he’ll be without Michael Thomas. No matter who is at the helm, Chris Olave is going to get plenty of targets, and that’s saying something since he has 13 in each of the past two weeks. Dalton doesn’t have the YOLO tendencies that Winston does, but looking for Olave deep is already ingrained in this offense. He’ll have to go for it. And with Jarvis Landry battling an ankle injury, all the more reason to go all in on Olave. I’m starting Alvin Kamara, but feeling about as well as his achy ribs are doing. With him running 26 routes to 29 for Thomas, the usage for Kamara is good and I can see Dalton checking down to him plenty on the off chance that Olave is not open deep. 

CLE (2-1) @ ATL (1-2)
CLE -1 / 47.5
You’re starting RB2 Nick Chubb and RB15 Kareem Hunt. This is the best duo in the game, and the matchup is great against a defense that has not been tested since the opener when Kamara got hurt during the game. Chubb is averaging 113.7 rushing yards/game, so there’s no reason to think he will slow down anytime soon. The Browns are a pretty easy team to determine, as when they pass, the ball is likely going in the direction of Amari Cooper. With 21 targets the past two games, he’s turned that into top 10 finishes the past two games. The likely matchup with A.J. Terrell is looking like a tough one, even though the corner’s 59.2 coverage grade thus far is mediocre. He did get beat on a couple great grabs by Thomas in the opener when Terrell looked like he had a blanket on Thomas. David Njoku is coming off his first 10-target game of the season, and is going into a matchup with an Atlanta defense that’s allowing 20.4 FPG to the TE, #31 in the league according to amigo Scott Rinear’s charting.

Marcus Mariota has been running anywhere from 6-12 times per game. That’s buoying up his stat line because he’s only attempted at least 30 passes in one of three games. He’s only a starter in super flex leagues or if you’re streaming in a deep league. Though if you can stack him with Drake London that’d be pretty good. The rookie is the WR14 with a line of 16-214-2 on 25 targets. He’s arrived as an every-week starter, Familia. Let’s hope that the same arrival had Kyle Pitts aboard. After getting 8 targets last week, Pitts gets a matchup did good work holding Tyler Conklin and Pat Freiermuth to 40 and 41 yards, respectively, the past couple weeks. Pitts has to be the matchup nightmare for the Falcons to have a chance. Another big week from the RB6 Cordarelle Patterson would help, as he’s averaging just over 100 yards on nearly 17 carries per game. Long term, you have to worry about how much this workload could wear him down. But until that happens, you’re riding this caballo every week.

WAS (1-2) @ DAL (2-1)
DAL -3 / 41.5
Carson Wentz and the Commanders came back crashing to earth against the Eagles, and now get one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the league, headed up by Micah Parsons. In fact, Wentz was thrown to the dirt 9 times last week. With the issues that Washington has had on its O-line, it could be another long afternoon for Wentz. There could be some garbage time – basura! – yards that could go to the trio of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson, who are all averaging between 81%-91% snap counts. Last week the main recipient of those passes was McLaurin, who caught 6 balls for 102 yards. He’ll get a lot of attention from Trevon Diggs, so the F1 is someone I won’t be starting in DFS. Samuel, with his 8 total rushing attempts leaving his 2nd in the league among WRs, may be the best bet for points this week. Logan Thomas is still ramping up from his December ACL surgery, so I’m sitting him until I see more consistent targets coming his way. Though his route participation (94.7%) was encouraging. Unless I’m dealing with injuries, I’m looking heavily at sitting Antonio Gibson. After Week 1 when he caught 7 balls for 72 yards, he’s combined to rush 26 times for 66 yards and caught just 3 balls for 15 yards. And this with the Dallas run D being vulnerable, having given up 126 combined yards to Saquon Barkley last week. As if what I’ve said earlier needs any reinforcing, I’m sitting Wentz wherever possible. 

One of the smash plays of the week is CeeDee Lamb. He’s earned no less than 11 targets in any game this season, and in the past two weeks has caught 15 balls for 162 yards and a score. Against a Washington D that’s allowing 46.9 PPR points to WRs (#29), Lamb will have his way with the Commander secondary. At $6,700 in DraftKings, he’ll be a popular play this week. Michael Gallup appears to be back, but I’m sitting him in anything but the deepest leagues. That first week back in action after a long rehab can be him working back into the action on the field. The backfield duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard could have some room to maneuver, as this defensive front is still without Chase Young and other reinforcements up front. While it may not be the 178 yards on 28 carries they combined for last week, the Commanders have given up some yardage on the ground to duos in James Robinson-Travis Etienne (113 yards) and D’Andre Swift-Jamaal Williams (109 yards). Fantasy managers would like to see more work in the passing game for the RBs, as they had just 2 combined last week. Dalton Schultz got in only limited practices during the week, so have other options ready just in case. Cooper Rush is only a play in super flex leagues, though at $5300 on DK he could be a tournament play against that porous Washington defense. Noah Brown (5 receptions each game) at $4,900 is a nice double stack option with Rush and Lamb, and you can add a Washington WR on the other side. 

SEA (1-2) @ DET (1-2)
DET -4 / 48.5
Pete Carroll, we hardly know you anymore. The Seahawks are #31 with 56 rush attempts through three weeks and #20 with 103 pass attempts. Geno Smith made some people money last week by throwing for 325 yards and 2 TDs. He has another good matchup this week against a Lion defense that’s allowing 31 points per week and 280 passing yards. That with Jeff Okudah showcasing himself as one of the better shutdown corners in the game – he held Justin Jefferson to 3-14-0. Wes Huber of Fantasy Points said the matching sizes of Tyler Lockett and Okudah may call for a quieter Lockett game. So I’m firing up D.K. Metcalf coming of 12 targets for a 5-64-1 line last week. Smith at $5,400 is another possible cheap play in DK, and is a good target for super flex leagues. The RBs, the only one I’m playing is Rashaad Penny, who’s the only player likely to receive double-digit snaps on running plays. Still, at best he’s a RB2 or flex play. 

The injuries to Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are a kick in the gut. Both were playing so well, especially St. Brown as the WR3 in a start that foretells superstardom. Heal that ankle, Sun God. In his absence, the targets should be split among Josh Reynolds, D.J. Chark and T.J. Hockenson. Reynolds saw 10 targets last week and turned it into 6-96-0. That, plus the connection from the Ram years, can be convincing to get Reynolds in lineups. Chark is battling an ankle injury of his own and has yet to eclipse 52 receiving yards in any game. He’s more YOLO play, and Jared Goff hasn’t been one to throw deep too often. Hockenson can look to the work that Kyle Pitts received last week (5-8-87-0) and hope for similar production. If he doesn’t turn up big in this spot, I just can’t say it’s ever going to happen. With St. Brown taking a seat, that really hurts Goff’s chances of continuing his very good season. He’s QB11 and averaging almost 250 yards per game and has 7 TDs. Even in a home game, I’m only starting him in super flex leagues. Going elsewhere for DFS.

TEN (1-2) @ IND (1-1-1)
IND -3.5 / 43
This should be on a boxing marquee featuring in this corner, the 2020 rushing champ (Derrick Henry), and in that corner, the 2021 rushing champ (Jonathan Taylor). They are the biggest reason to watch this game. Henry has a stiffer challenge, on the road in Indy against a team that’s allowing just 19.7 FPG (14th). You’re starting him in your redraft league, but not in DFS. JT will have it easier, and he can look to the game when Saquon Barkley totaled 194 yards against the Titans. It’s been a slow start for Taylor (RB10), though all it takes is a big game to get him into the top 5. I like Michael Pittman only among the pass catchers, as the Titan pass defense has given up moderately successful games to JuJu Smith-Schuster, Christian Kirk and Brandin Cooks. Pittman will make it 4, as he got his requisite 8 targets in this one. I’m keeping an eye on Alec Pierce (5 targets last week) for the future, but not really this week unless it’s a desperation flex play because of injuries. The TEs are non-starters for me. Matt Ryan could be a good second QB in super flex, as the Tennessee pass defense is beatable. That 352-yard game against Houston in the opener is still fresh enough in the memory banks. 

On the Titan side, much as I like the increased usage that Treylon Burks received, this might be too tough a matchup.  In Week 3, he ran the most routes on the team with 27. That number was lucky 13 in Week 1, so that’s trending in the right direction to him eventually following all the rookie WRs breaking out all around. Bad news, he’s likely getting the Stefon Gilmore treatment this week. Gilmore is #13 (coincident) in PFF’s defensive grade. Robert Woods is another whose targets are trending in the right direction – 9 last week. This is good news for the future, but again I’m looking elsewhere if I can afford it and not using him for DFS. Stay away from the TEs. 

CHI (2-1) @ NYG (2-1)
NYG -3.5 / 39.5
The way these teams are configured, this game would fit in well in the 1980s, with Saquon Barkley and Khalil Herbert playing the roles of Walter Payton and Joe Morris. And there could be rain left over from the hurricane, so all the more reason to stay grounded. Barkley is in a super caliente spot. He’s the RB1 and amigo Jake Tribbey found that in the games when Barkley is a favorite, he averages 27.6 points on DraftKings. I’m spending up the $8K to get him in my lineups. The Bears are also generous on the ground, allowing 101 total yards to Dameon Pierce last week and 170 yards to Aaron Jones the week prior. Familia, I’m going to be honest, the rest of the Giants roster is just no bueno for fantasy. Daniel Jones is running more, with 79 yards last week. Injuries have limited his pass catchers, so I would hope you don’t even have to start him in super flex.

Herbert, if you were listening to what I was saying preseason that he could be the 2021 A.J. Dillon, well, then you’re welcome. I thought he’d have stand-alone value, but not this quickly. He’s going to be the lead caballo, and the Giants are giving up 24.5 FPG to RBs. The Bears’ O-line has done much better in the running game, and will open holes for Herbert. He’s an easy play wherever you have him, and will be very popular on DK at $5,700. I wish I could feel better about the passing game, because I have a lot of Justin Fields on my teams. The super flex teams, I hope I have a 3rd QB to start and just sit on him. The single-QB teams, I’ve dropped him. In this league, having a high of 17 passing attempts even through three weeks is just not what we need on our rosters. My only hope with him is that the Bears are trying to do with him what the Eagles did in 2021 with Jalen Hurts. Then in the offseason they improve the O-line and add at least one playmaker outside. For 2022, I’m out. Greg Cosell even said that what he’s seeing is that Fields is not executing the plays as they’re called and doing a lot of freelancing. Not the way to endear oneself to a coaching staff and front office regime that didn’t draft him. Well, I’ve used a lot of words to recommend just one Bear to play. Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet? Mooney has been a cut for me for more than a week. Kmet is harder to cut because the bar is so low for the TE position. I’m holding, unless you can grab someone like Tyler Conklin. 

JAX (2-1) @ PHI (3-0)
PHI -6.5 / 45.5
Rain could be a factor here, as well. Winds will be around 16 MPH, so bordering on affecting the passing game. The Eagles are in start-everyone mode. Even if he’s slowed by rain and wind, Hurts is a starter everywhere as the QB3 overall. Last week’s game was a revelation in that A.J. Brown (5-10-85-1) and DeVonta Smith (8-12-169-1) could have big games at the same time. That will be tougher this week, even though the Jaguars gave up 313 passing yards to Carson Wentz and 297 more to Justin Herbert last week. The Jags have yet to face a TE on the level of Dallas Goedert, so he could join the Brown-Smith fun in the passing game. He’s the 3rd banana, though. If the elements don’t get in the way, Hurts could have another big day in the passing game. The run game will be tough for Miles Sanders, as the Jaguars have an underrated front 7 that has limited Jonathan Taylor to 54 yards and Austin Ekeler to just 5. 

I’ve really enjoyed, and benefited in Scott Fish Bowl, from the rise of Trevor Lawrence. He’s averaging 257.3 YPG and has 6 TDs. He’s looked so much better than last year, and he’s a big part of the Jags being 2-1. This Philly defense is a whole other animal. The D-line is formidable, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry have allowed only a single 100-yard receiver (Terry McLaurin). This may be the best defense Lawrence faces all year. I’d look at sitting him in super flex leagues, if you have a good 3rd option. Hard to start him in 1-QB leagues, even with all the injuries. With Fabio Football on the Afuera list, it’s hard to be optimistic about Christian Kirk or any other WRs. The WR6 could get a heavy dose of that secondary, and with the rain, it’s just a tough week. James Robinson and Travis Etienne will have a tough time finding room to run. 

BUF (2-1) @ BAL (2-1)
BUF -3 / 51
Game of the Week. The top 2 QBs in fantasy, and both secondaries are less that 100%. There is nothing that Lamar Jackson is not doing. He’s on pace for 1377 rush yards and already has 10 TD passes. At the very least he is playing as well as he did at any point during his MVP season, and he may be a better passer than he was then. He’s completing 63.6% of his passes. At $8,300 in DK, I’m spending up to get him in a GPP lineup. With the Buffalo secondary figuring itself out after so many injuries, I’m expecting another big game from Jackson. Same with Allen. He’s completing passes at a stunning 71.2% rate and averaging 338 yards passing and more than 6 carries a game. He’ll be targeting a Baltimore secondary that’s nursing itself back to health. Really the only thing that could dampen – pun intended – their production is that there’s a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore. Winds will be around 14 MPH, so not quite to the point that they will impact the game. Still, this game is going to be fun.

J.K. Dobbins was on the field for 26 of 59 snaps last week, so he’s definitely being eased back into play after missing 2021 with a torn ACL. If you have to start him as an RB2 or flex, go for it. I’m still not doing it with confidence. I’d look to sit him at least one more week to see the usage. Mark Andrews is paying off, amigo Scott Rinear pointed out that if you have a Jackson-Andrews stack, you’re ruling your league. Andrews is averaging 3.6 more FPG than Travis Kelce, and at 21.6, would be the WR6 on the season. TEs haven’t done much against the Bills – Tyler Higbee has a high of 39 yards against them – but they also haven’t faced someone like Andrews. At $7,100 in DK, he’s worth the investment. I really like Rashod Bateman’s talent, but I’d feel better about starting him if he had more targets. With 16 through three games, that’s just too low a number. But if you have Jackson, you’re starting him. I’m sitting Devin Duvernay unless you need a YOLO call because of injuries.

Stefon Diggs at more than 11 targets per game is off to a spectacular WR1 start. He could keep the mantle all year. Look for at least that many targets, and he’s worth spending the $8,400 in DK in a GPP stack with Allen. Don’t forget how he went ballistic at 12-148-3 in Week 2 without Gabriel Davis. If Davis is out, targets are going to Diggs. If Davis is in, you’re starting him but not with confidence. He was on the field 87 of 91 snaps last week, though he underwhelmed at 3-37-0 with a dropped TD pass. Ankles are so tricky, but if he’s active you’re starting him against a secondary that’s allowed huge games to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Devante Parker these last couple weeks. Isaiah McKenzie’s 9 targets last week are enticing, but I’m only starting him if injuries have hit hard. His $5,100 DK price tag even feels a little steep. Dawson Knox, I love the talent, but even at the wasteland that is the TE position, I’d hope you can find someone who is getting more than 11 targets thus far. I’m not dropping him, though, because even a piece of this high-powered offense is good. And if he starts getting more looks, watch out. 

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