Sometimes there are losses that just really gnaw at you. This has been a fairly successful season for me, personally. A great number of my teams are 8-5 and looking good for the playoffs. A couple have even survived significant-to-catastrophic injuries to the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. Those teams that are headed for postseason play are doing so in good position. Maybe not as favorites, but I’ve been the favorite plenty of times and had my nose bloodied by a #6 seed. Just get in the tournament.
From a fantasy analysis standpoint, it’s been a solid year. No one bats 1,000 in baseball nor fantasy football prognostication, but I know I’m batting more than .500. I’ll take that. Even on the misses, I trust in the process that went into the analysis. That’s what you have to keep telling yourself when the misses come.
One miss that is still bugging me happened just last weekend. One of my main home leagues I was hit hard with bye weeks, and on top of it I had Deebo Samuel’s injury. My bench was that NSYNC song: Bye, Bye, Bye. One player that did score was Mac Jones – 0.46. So I had some work to do on two flex positions. My co-manager and I had several players we were considering, but settled on Zac Pascal and Quez Watkins as our two peekups. We liked the matchups, even with Watkins having a QB change. Even up to late Saturday we were considering a couple players: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Mike Davis. We decided to pass, and were surprised to see that our opponent had picked up the two players. We still felt good about the players we did get. You know what happened. The players we started didn’t reach 12 points and those we left for our opponent to pick up passed 40. We lost by 45. We probably win and lock in a playoff spot with those two players, but we trusted our process in picking up who we did.
That’s what you have to do. Trust in your own process. It’s not different from playing blackjack. If you always hold on 16 against a 6, you’ll win more than 50% of the time. But sometimes the dealer turns over a 5 and then pulls a face card for 21. You know you did the right thing, but the result was still negative. It happens. For us, sometimes fantasy football happens. Stay true to your process. Occasionally play a hunch, but if you stay consistent with your own research and listening to the people you trust – gracias for reading or tuning in – you’ll be just fine.
OK, time to get into LOS PEEKUPS for Week 14. As always, listed are players who are rostered in 50% or less in Yahoo leagues. Salud!
STREAMING QUARTERBACKS OF THE WEEK
TAYSOM HILL @ NYJ
34%
Yes, we saw him play with a makeshift splint on his hand for a good chunk of the game, but we also saw him go for 101 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries. That was on top of 264 passing yards and 2 more TDs. The Jets have allowed 1,311 passing yards and 11 TDs since Week 9. Hill might be a play during the fantasy playoffs if you have been streaming QB.
RUNNING BACK
DONTRELL HILLIARD vs JAX
41%
Some of leaguemates may have forgotten that Hilliard ran 12 times for 131 yards in Week 12 before the Titans’ bye. The Jaguars have allowed 100-yard rushers each of the past two weeks.
ADRIAN PETERSON @ HOU
15%
OK, don’t laugh, but he did get the goal-line carry. Yes, all of fantasy football Twitter has weighed in on how slow he looked, but opportunities are opportunities. AP ran for 40 yards on 9 carries in his swan song with the Titans. If you’re hurting and need someone who can fall into the end zone, AP could be your guys.
HANDCUFF ZONE
Here are some players who, if you have the room on your bench, could be good handcuffs during the fantasy playoffs. Khalil Herbert, Tevin Coleman, Samaje Perine, Ameer Abdullah and Kene Nwangwu.
WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END
MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING vs CHI
19%
Those 19 targets are ironically the same as his percentage rostership. That number needs to climb, because MVS is elbowing his way into WR2 status for the Packers. And after the Bears he has very good matchups against the Ravens and Vikings during the fantasy playoffs.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN @ DEN
4%
I’m picking him over Josh Reynolds, largely because the 10-12-86-1 performance against the Vikings smells like a rookie breakout game in the 2nd half of the season. We see them all the time. The Broncos are a tough matchup this week, but when the Lions travel to play the Falcons and Seahawks in the last two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, you’ll be glad to have the option to pivot to in your flex.
K.J. OSBORN vs PIT
5%
The Adam Thielen high-ankle sprain is opening up about 8-10 targets for possible the rest of the fantasy season. Last week Osborn turned 7 targets into 4 catches, 47 yards and 1 TD.
TYLER CONKLIN vs PIT
30%
More Thielen fallout. Conklin saw 9 targets of his own, catching 7 for 56 yards and finishing the week as the TE6. At this point, you’ll take a possible top 10 TE in these crucial weeks.
RICKY SEALS-JONES @ CAR
5%
RSJ is working his way back from a hip injury and could see the targets left by Logan Thomas, who thankfully did not tear his ACL, but is going to miss some time. The 6-9 targets he saw Weeks 5 to 7 are still in the memory.
DEFENSIVE STREAMER OF THE WEEK
GREEN BAY vs CHI
39%
With 28 sacks and 12 INT, the Packers are getting it done on that side of the ball and are close to getting their entire unit together for the stretch run. Facing the Bears, they’ll either see Andy Dalton or Justin Fields, neither of whom are scaring anyone. Then they have the Ravens, Browns and Vikings Weeks 15-17, very enticing opponents during the fantasy playoffs.
SOURCES: PFF / Pro-Football-Reference / Fantasy Pros / Football Guys / Lineups.com
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