It’s crazy to think that a team coming off a resounding Super Bowl victory, with the best QB in the game signing a gargantuan contract extension, bringing back the ridiculously talented core of skill players… and the biggest story for fantasy players in late July is a rookie RB who was nowhere near K.C. in early February for the team’s victory parade.

Well, the hype for Clyde Edwards-Helaire zoomed beyond the clouds when Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season. When CEH was chosen as the #32 pick in April’s NFL Draft, the only RB chosen in the first round, speculation ran rampant estimating when he’d take over as the lead caballo in the Chief backfield. Williams, after all, had a game for the ages that secured him legendary status in Kansas City — and likely earned him free drinks in the city’s bars for the rest of his days — rushing 17 times for 104 yards and 1 TD, adding 4 catches for 29 yards and another score in the Chiefs’ 31-20 comeback win. Of course, when your QB is Patrick Mahomes, and he makes play after play in the 4th quarter, that has a way of giving the rock star signal caller the edge when it comes to MVP hardware.

So now, CEH is thrust into the spotlight, and he’s coming off a championship of his own where he helped lead LSU to the national title in a battle of previously unbeaten teams. CEH had 110 yards on the ground, and added 5 catches for 54 yards in the LSU 42-25 domination. That showed a skill set that will translate well to the pro game. 

CEH is the rare rushing-receiving back who can seemingly do it all. Some NFL scouts said he was the best pass-catching RB in the draft in many years. Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow even called CEH the MVP of the team. The RB’s final numbers only started to tell the story: 215 carries, 1,414 yards, 55 receptions for 453 yards and 17 total TDs. With rookie RBs being the players most apt to break out right when they first step on an NFL field, that’s only the beginning of the excitement. Add to it the rest of the recipe for success: Andy Reid’s playcalling, Mahomes’ rocket arm and the receiving duo of TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill to keep defenses from packing the box to stop the run.

A comparison of Kareem Hunt in 2017 is very applicable. Hunt’s rookie year saw him with 325 total touches, including 272 rushes for an NFL-leading 1,327 yards, 53 receptions, 455 yards and 11 total TD. That was with Alex Smith at QB, though Hill and Kelce had stellar seasons then. The path is clear in the K.C. backfield for CEH to take his shot at replicating Hunt’s 2017 season. 

CEH will go in the first round in most drafts this year, and while he may not finish with the rushing attempts that Hunt had in 2017, there’s a good chance for a final line like this: 250 attempts, 1,200+ yards, 60 receptions for 500+ yards and 10-12 total TDs. That will put him the RB1 tier, and likely in the top 5.

Mahomes is still the best of the best, and he’s now the $500 Million Man, with apologies to Steve Austin. Mahomes’ main pass-catching weapons have remained the same for his 3 years. Think Aaron Rodgers in his prime, when he was throwing 40 TDs a year with regularity. That’s what we’re talking about here. With defenses probably being behind offenses due to the lack of reps during training camp, Mahomes owners must be salivating. Remember the Week 15 game vs. Denver in the snow, when he went for 340 yards and 2 scores? He said it felt like playing schoolyard ball

Those who were calling for regression for Mahomes were proved correct to a certain extent. His 2018 season with 5,097 yards and 50 TD — on an 8.6% TD rate — was for the ages. Those who said he couldn’t keep it up saw Mahomes throw for at least 315 yards in the first 5 games of the season. Through 6 games he was on a pace for 5,611 passing yards and 37 TD. Not much of a dropoff in performance. A dislocated knee in Week 7 looked like a season-ender, but Mahomes proved that he was different in his ability to recover. He wasn’t the same after coming back, though he was still plenty good to win a title. 

Since Mahomes is in another ether, it’s important to look at the all-time greats to get a true comp. I took a look at Dan Marino’s legendary 1984, when he threw for the first 5,000-yard season in NFL history (5,084 to be exact) and 48 TD. The next year he went back to 4,137 yards and 30 TD, still league-leading but paled in comparison to the year prior. In 1986, Marino went for 4,746 yards and 44 TD. This could be what we’re looking at with Mahomes in 2020, the return to video game numbers. He’ll push 5,000 yards and throw in the range of  40-45 TD. And while he has some tough early matchups against the Chargers, Ravens and Patriots, his Weeks 14-16 are at Miami, at New Orleans and home against Atlanta. Two of those matchups are tasty during the fantasy playoffs. 

His two main targets are still in their respective primes. Hill and Kelce are the best WR-TE combo in the league, and they complement each other nicely. Hill is the deep-ball threat who can take it to the house any time. Kelce just chews up yards down the middle and is great in the red zone (a league-leading 22 targets and 8 completions). Kelce is durable, too (1 missed game since 2014). Hill missed 4 games with a shoulder injury last year, which can be a problem for small, speedy types. His 58 receptions for 860 yards and 7 TD is a far cry from the massive 87 receptions for 1,479 yards and 13 TD in 2018. These numbers are why Hill will be drafted in the first round this year. His TD upside is why he can be WR1 overall like 2 years ago.

Kelce took the mantle as the top TE since he became a regular over 1,000 yards in 2016. His 97 receptions on 136 targets for 1,229 yards are Julio Jones-type numbers, and an incredible advantage in leagues with the TE position. Again, he’ll flirt with 100 receptions and 1,300 yards. With Mahomes playing 16 games, figure on Kelce’s return to double-digit TD.

With the trio of CEH-Hill-Kelce taking up about 350 of the approximately 600 passes that Mahomes will attempt, does Sammy Watkins get another 90 targets like last year? He was more involved during the playoffs than he was at any point after his incredible 9-reception, 198-yard and 3 TD blowout in the season debut. He’ll have to compete with Mecole Hardman, who had a very efficient 6 TD on just 30 touches total. Hardman will get use on jet sweeps and can fly up and down the field with screens. If he can double his targets to 82, he’ll be dangerous and could have a similar season to what A.J. Brown had in Tennessee last year.

Also, remember that defenses were down in 2011, the last time there was a limited offseason (because of a labor dispute). If defenses are a step behind the offenses, teams are in trouble when they face Kansas City.