Our Arriba/Abajo series continues with the Overrated players. Los Muy Arriba. We came up with 3 players each at QB, RB and pass catcher— WR or TE —  that we think are going a little too high compared to the ADP of some other players. Muy Arriba. To figure ADP we used 4for4.com, which has a regularly updated composite of several different sites that are conducting drafts. Let’s open up with the QBs (Note: Draft round is based on a 12-team league).

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson
It’s easy to look at the list of QBs on a draft board and to wonder what the big difference between #4 (Watson) and #12 (Aaron Rodgers). We’re talking nearly a 4-round difference between the two players. Which of the 2 players actually threw for 4,000 yards? Not Watson. In fact, Watson has never hit that figure in his career. 

The rushing floor of 413 yards last year for Watson is what adds to his value. He’s still one of the best running QBs in the game after Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The belief that Watson could explode for 4,500 yards and 35 TDs has been there since he was a rookie. But are you ready to pass on RBs like Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram and Raheem Mostert for Watson? And WRs like Courtland Sutton and Tyler Lockett are also going later. Tough to pass them up with the depth at the position.

Dak Prescott 
OK, Cowboy Nation. Before you get too riled up and put our photos up at DFW Airport, we’re very much aware that Prescott threw for 4,902 yards and 30 TDs. And that he ran in 3 more scores. Plus, you want him because you drafted him as your backup last year and he blew up to QB2. 

Prescott is great, and his weapons could be better if CeeDee Lamb benefits from the leftover DB who isn’t covering Amari Cooper nor Michael Gallup. Prescott is in a good position to have a great followup season. It’s the draft spot. He’s QB3 and going in the 4th round before A.J. Brown, David Johnson and Calvin Ridley. How would your team look with one of them drafted in this round, and Dallas native Matthew Stafford in the 10th round? Even Cowboy fans have to think about the hard pass on Prescott.

Joe Burrow
Yes, he had a historic senior season at LSU. We had just as big a blast watching him put up video game numbers last fall. We loved his Heisman speech, too. But repeat after me: Don’t draft rookie QBs and expect them to be anything more than a streaming pick.

Here’s a short list of players going after Burrow in the 11th round: Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. The list keeps going. 

Burrow is talented, and if you can find a spot for him in dynasty, do it. Just don’t buy the rookie QB hype. Dan Marino, Cam Newton and Watson are the only rookie QBs who’ve been excellent out of the chute their rookie years. 

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon
He’s in that tier after Derrick Henry, but still a first-rounder as RB7. Is he at the top of that tier when Nick Chubb, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs  are going after him?

Here are the WRs going after him: Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. Would any of them look better on your team instead of Mixon?

His overall numbers last year were solid: 1,137 rushing yards and 8 total TDs. Don’t forget, the Bengals had a bad offensive line last year that may not be upgraded dramatically if 2019 1st-rounder Jonah Williams is anything short of impenetrable after missing last year with injury. The defense will be bad, so negative game script could work against him. 

Nick Chubb
Yes, we see the 1,494 rushing yards and 8 TDs from last year. The yardage was 2nd in the league. And we all heard Kareem Hunt saying publicly that he’s fine being the #2 back in this offense. Still, keep in mind that after Hunt came back from suspension, Chubb’s carries dwindled from 27 in Week 10 to 15 and 13, respectively, in the last couple weeks of the season. 

Hunt is also a superior pass catcher. Does Chubb being a two-down back make him look enticing at RB8? With Jones and Hill going right after him in early drafts, it’s hard to imagine passing on those players to see Chubb come off the field on passing downs.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Yes, take the KC RB1. Are you ready to bet that he’s the RB1 from Day 1? Damien Williams is still there. 

There was a lot of excitement for CEH when he was drafted at the end of the 1st round. It may have gotten too hot for him too quickly from the start. He’s at RB14 right now, going #24 overall. Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette are going afterward. Yes, they may not be as sexy as CEH’s potential, but they are assured of a greater share of the backfield than the rookie. Mike Evans and Kenny Golladay are also going after him. I dare you to pass on either of them. 

Remember that the top rookie RBs last year were Miles Sanders at RB15, and Josh Jacobs was RB20. Just shows how much we’re expecting of CEH for his rookie year.  If you take him, you better be sure you’re right.

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Odell Beckham Jr.
The 74 catches and 1,035 yards and 4 TDs is an upgrade over the previous injury-plagued seasons. It feels like that monster 101-catch, 1,367-yard and 10-TD season in 2016 was a long time ago. Are you still paying for the designer jeans? Jarvis Landry and his ranking of WR30 and #75 overall is that solid pair of Levi’s that fits just fine. Landry finished WR11 last year.

OBJ is healthy after offseason hernia surgery. That injury apparently lingered all last season. If he rides back to excellence on the wings of a Baker Mayfield resurgence — definitely possible — OBJ will go back to being a Top 5 WR. He needs to do that to justify taking him ahead of Mark Andrews, Adam Thielen and Chris Carson. 

A.J. Brown
Averaging more than 20 yards a catch makes fantasy owners drool. The 52 catches is a large dose of reality. But those long runs he had on jet sweeps were also so pretty late in the year.

Volume is a worry with Brown. Yes, he’ll be the absolute #1 WR for the Titans. They’re still a run-first team, with Derrick Henry doing the heavy lifting. If the reception volume doesn’t increase, WRs like Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett all will surpass Brown through number of receptions. However, if Brown’s reception total spikes upward, the 4th round will seem like a bargain.

Darren Waller
Darren Waller came out of nowhere to reach 90 receptions, 1,145 yards and 3 TDs. Similar to how George Kittle broke out in 2018. HC Jon Gruden does like to use the TE, and it’s evident in Waller’s production.

The real question: Are you ready to use a 4th-round pick on a TE not named Kittle or Kelce? OK, both of those studs will be gone by that point, but there are definitely important choices being made in the 4th round of drafts. Players like LeVeon Bell, James Conner, Carson and Ridley are all going in this range. If you don’t have your RB position settled by this round, it’s hard to take a TE. Even one as good as Waller.