We all love the NFL draft, and all of its possibilities. So many players look like they’re going to be perennial All-Pros and get fitted for the Gold Jackets. Then reality hits when it comes time to play against grown men.

John Elway looked like he was going to be a god in the NFL before being drafted #1 in 1983. He still has one of the greatest arms in NFL history, and was recently voted one of the greatest QBs in history. But to say his rookie year was bumpy would be an understatement. Here are his rookie numbers as well as year 2:

(1983 – 11 Games) 1,663 passing yards / 47.5% completion rate / 7 TD /
14 INT. Team record: 9-7. 

(1984 – 15 Games) 2,598 passing yards / 56.3% completion rate/  18 TD /
15 INT in 121 more passing attempts than ’83. Team record: 13-3.

Peyton Manning had every college accolade at Tennessee other than the Heisman before he went #1 to the Colts in 1998. Yet he was far from immune to the struggles common to the rookie QB. He recently wrote the forward in a book on the NFL’s first 100 years, where he told his then-QB coach Bruce Arians during his first NFL camp that at best a receiver was open only a couple inches. Arians informed him that’s what open is in the NFL. Manning’s statistics from his first couple seasons definitely tell a story:

(1998 – 16 Games) 3,739 passing yards / 56.7% completion rate / 26 TD /
28 INT (NFL rookie record). Team record: 3-13.

(1999 – 16 Games) 4,135 passing yards / 62.1% completion rate / 26 TD /
15 INT. Team record: 13-3.

Keep in mind, these are two of the greatest QBs in the history of the game. Rookie QBs struggle. They’re hardly ever to be trusted for an entire year in fantasy. Probably only Dan Marino in 1983 and Cam Newton in 2011 are QBs who helped people win fantasy leagues.

The 2nd year is the year when players, if it’s going to happen at the QB position, that’s usually when the breakout happens. Look at Carson Wentz 2017, Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson last year. The Year 2 jump is real. Let’s take a look at the 6 expected starters who are going into their 2nd year in the league.

Kyler Murray
Is he Lamar Jackson 2.0? Arizona has improved its weapons in DeAndre Hopkins and a full season of Kenyan Drake. Hopkins has excelled no matter who is the QB, and Murray should look to throw it 150 times in his direction. Nuk will likely push Murray’s Average Yards per Completion up from 10.7 (25th in the league).

The Cardinals passed the ball 554 times as a team last year, and if that increases beyond 600, an improved Murray will see a jump in stats. He did, after all, throw for fewer yards than Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Cardinals worked on their offensive line in free agency and the draft, and if this unit moves up from 22nd (according to Pro Football Focus) that will help Murray. Running the football, Murray went for 544 yards, and that would seem to be his floor. Look for 25-30 passing TDs and 6 rushing scores, and with it a jump into the top 5 QBs. . 

(2019) 3,722 yards / 64.4% comp rate / QBR 87.4 / 20 TD / 12 INT 544 rush yards & 4 TD

Gardner Minshew
Mr. Jorts came out of 6th-round obscurity to play 14 games and had a few promising games that were good DFS plays. He doesn’t wow with arm strength, but he is accurate. Minshew only threw 6 INTs last year. He had a good connection with breakout WR DJ Chark, who caught 73 passes for 1,008 yards in his sophomore campaign.

While it doesn’t always look pretty, Minshew gets more than his share of rushing yards. He’s a sneaky pick for 400+ rushing yards. The Jaguar defense is a work in progress, so look for Minshew to take part in some shootouts. 

What should be noted is that the Jaguars did not draft a QB, nor bring in a big-ticket free agent. In fact, they traded Nick Foles, so the position is Minshew’s. At QB23, Minshew will help Superflex leagues as a 2nd QB. 
(2019) 14 G / 3,271 yards / 60.6% comp rate / QBR 91.2 / 21 TD / 6 INT / 344 rush yards / 0 TD

Drew Lock
The offense is all his own, as Elway did not draft any competition for the 2nd-round pick from Missouri. The weapons are talented, though the only proven pass catcher is Courtland Sutton. Breaking in 2 rookie WRs in Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler is not going to be easy. At best, only 1 of them will flourish as rookies. 

Lock has great arm strength, though his 6.5 Yards per Attempt would have been 31st in the league if he’d thrown enough passes. His connection with Noah Fant seemed good in the closing weeks, though Lock needs to work on getting the ball to Sutton more often. He’s being selected late in recent drafts, and undrafted in many. If any of the young weapons beyond Sutton break out, it’ll be because Lock broke out himself. 
(2019) 5 Games / 1,020 passing yards / 64.1% / QBR 89.7 / 7 TD / 3 INT /
72 rush yards / 0 TD 

Daniel Jones
Jones is a popular pick in early drafts, going as QB16, ahead of Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah did an analysis and found that the Giants have the fastest team of skill players, by 40-yard dash, in the league. So figure that Jones will have someone open somewhere on the field most of the time.

Turnovers were a problem for Jones. Along with the 12 picks, he fumbled 8 times. Word is he’s focused on adding strength this offseason to hold onto the ball better. He had 3 monster games where he threw for 4 or 5 TDs, and his rushing ability adds to his value.

The Giants don’t figure to be much better on defense, so Jones will have to put points on the board. Expect to see Danny Dimes throw the ball plenty this season to try and win shootouts, so an uptick in completion rate from the low 60s could bring a good return on his QB16 draft status. An improvement in the offensive line from #17 last year will surely help Jones.

(2019) 13 Games / 3,027 yards / 61.2% / QBR 87.7 / 24 TD / 12 INT /
279 rush yards / 2 TD

Dwayne Haskins
The lasting image of Haskins may be his going to the stands and taking a selfie with fans when he should have been on the field taking the final snaps in a victory on Nov. 24, 2019. Maturity was a question mark after he was drafted in the first round, and rumblings inside the Washington camp about Haskins’ work ethic raised some eyebrows. The offseason social media posts showing Haskins working out and trimming his body more than 10 lbs. are encouraging.

Haskins has to prove himself because he’s playing for a new HC in Ron Rivera, and a new GM in Scott McCloughan. His best player on offense is likely Ohio State teammate Terry McLaurin, who is a popular choice to explode from his 919 yards on 58 receptions last year. A second or third option emerging may depend on Haskins’ development. He has all the physical tools, so even though he’ll likely go undrafted this year, he could put together some games that are worthy of streaming against the right matchup. Never underestimate how a player in prove-it mode rises to the occasion.

(2019) 9 Games / 1,365 yards / 58.6% / 76.1 QBR / 7 TD / 7 INT / 101 rush yards / 0 TD

Jarrett Stidham
Big mystery is, will he be Matt Cassel 2.0? You remember when Tom Brady tore his ACL in 2008 in the season opener. Cassel came in and had a good season in leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record. New England fans can only hope that Stidham will come close to Cassel back then.

It is telling that the Patriots only added Brian Hoyer, who while familiar with the offense has mostly been a backup his career. Stidham has raw tools, as coming out of high school he was ahead of Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Heard of them? 

He had a good example in Brady last year, and Josh McDaniels is his coach. Will he be a system QB where they build a game plan around him? The WR options remain the same, though 1st-rounder Nkeal Harry is going into his 2nd year. Julian Edelman is still there, too. His 2019 preseason highlights showed his accuracy on short & intermediate throws. The Patriots also had an offensive line ranked 10th in the league.