June 11, 2020

Arriba/Abajo: Overrated/Underrated Teams of the NFC

The NFL offseason can be so long, that we overanalyze teams based on 16-game schedules (more if there’s playoffs) and then spend months hyping up some players while tempering the enthusiasm for others. 

D.J. Moore quietly broke out in 2019, and is still underrated across many fantasy circles.

We took a look at 6 teams in the NFC, 3 of which we saw as getting too much hype and the other 3 going through a more quiet spring and summer. The goal of this article is to dive into each time purely from a fantasy perspective, and determine if they could go Underrated or Overrated, Arriba o Abajo.

UNDERRATED

Carolina Panthers
Imagine how much better this team is going to be with an upgrade at QB. Teddy Bridgewater is no Patrick Mahomes, but he’s a big step up from Kyle Allen. D.J. Moore broke out with 87 catches for 1,175 yards. His 4 TDs could see an increase with Bridgewater.

Bridgewater also means good things for speedsters Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel. Samuel seemed to suffer from the shoddy QB play. These two should also benefit from the scheming from new OC Joe Brady, who directed LSU’s historic attack last year.

Then there is that guy Christian McCaffrey. CMC even coming close to his 1,000/1,000 rushing and receiving yards is well within reason, as he’s very much the featured player. Also keep in mind the losses on defense and the youth drafted to replace it. That’s a recipe for shootouts all season, so pile on the fantasy stats, Panther fans.

Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff’s 4,638 yards passing was nearly identical to the 4,688 in 2018. The 22 TDs last year was 20 fewer than 2018, which has taken the shine off the apple for a guy who 16 months ago was starting in the Super Bowl. His 16 INTs is another reason he’s dropping down in ADP. The real question is: Will HC Sean McVay help Goff step forward again with the QB elite? The offensive line returning even close to its elite play in 2018 will be a big help for Goff, too.

There are definite weapons on the outside, with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both primed to top 90 receptions again. Tyler Higbee was the best TE in football Weeks 13-17 last year, and appears ready to dominate the middle for the Rams this year.

The bet here is that Cam Akers takes over the bell-cow duties for the Rams at some point this season. Darrell Henderson is more of a change-of-pace runner. Todd Gurley was otherworldly in 2017-18, but remember how C.J. Anderson excelled coming off the street in the last 2 weeks of 2018. If the line is right, this will be a good situation for any RB, and Akers is talented.

New York Giants
Daniel Jones is ripe for that 2nd-year jump. After Giant fans were slackjawed at him being selected No. 6 overall in 2019, he had his share of monstro games, though he did beat up on weak defenses against the Redskins, Jets, Lions and Buccaneers. 

Danny Dimes throws a beautiful ball, and the hope is that he improves upon his 61.9% completion rate and holds onto the ball better (8 fumbles). His rushing yards could quietly move into the 400-500 range, making him that much more valuable.

Hoping for a bounceback season from Saquon Barkley, after he amassed 1,441 rushing/receiving yards shows how high the bar is set with the Penn State product. His performance in the closing weeks shows he should be one of the top players picked on draft day, maybe even No. 2.

Darius Slayton is the pick here to get the 2nd-year boost and jump into the top WR role for the Giants. There is a lot of sentiment that Evan Engram will be injury-free for the first time and live up to his vast potential, but he has to show it first. 

The offensive line is key here. The Giants took 3 linemen in the first 5 rounds, and had some incumbents signed to long-term deals. If they can keep Danny Dimes’ jersey clean, look out for this offense. The defense did not get any upgrades, so Shootout City here we come.

OVERRATED

San Francisco 49ers
Interesting Fact: Baker Mayfield has started 29 regular-season NFL games. Jimmy Garoppolo has started 26. It certainly feels that Jimmy G has been in the league so much longer than Mayfield. Last year was the first time Garoppolo started for a full season.

The offense certainly did not flow through him in the playoffs. And during the regular season, Garoppolo’s 476 passing attempts were the fewest of any QB to start all 16 games not named Josh Allen (461). Will Jimmy G start to throw more in 2020? Hard to expect that, with the team’s reliance on the running game. Speaking of which, the 49ers may become the West Coast version of the Patriots as far as unpredictability of who will be the lead back on a given week.

Raheem Mostert figures to be the lead back, but Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson are still on the roster. Hard to expect that there will be one RB dominating this group.

George Kittle will have the passing game flow through him, and Deebo Samuel is a breakout candidate, but after that, it’s hard to expect breakouts from rookie Brandon Aiyuk and Jalen Hurd, who missed his first year so he’s essentially a rookie.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is the only team getting more hype than the Cardinals during the offseason. That’s what happens when you sign Tom Brady. Yes, he’s the GOAT, but is he the right guy in Tampa? Bruce Arians likes to push the ball deep, which means the QB hangs in the pocket to get hit. Brady is better with short and intermediate routes, hitting receivers in stride. It’s almost like the organization needs to pick one way to attack over the other.

The WR group tandem of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin may be the best in the game. Only problem is, with both coming off great seasons, and the change in QB, both WRs may be drafted higher than their respective ADP should be. Remember, don’t overpay for last year’s numbers. And as much as we love the return of #SoyFiesta Rob Gronkowski, the TE receptions will likely be split between Gronk, O.J. Howard and Cam Brate. 

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles can be a scary team for fantasy purposes. Carson Wentz is wonderful when he’s healthy: 4,039 yards passing, 27 TDs, 7 INTs, 63.9% completion rate and 93.1 QBR in 2019. Only problem, last year was only the 2nd of his 4 seasons to play a full season. Who feels secure when he’s your QB1?

Miles Sanders is getting a lot of hype for a 2nd-year breakout. When he took over lead-back duties, he was good, though he did have just a single 100-yard game. He caught plenty of balls, 50 on the season, but there is that gnawing feeling that either Boston Scott will eat into Sanders’ touches, or the Eagles will add an RB to make this a committee.

The TEs are the best in the game, and could be Wentz’s only legitimate targets. Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert can both start for many fantasy teams, but who will want to bank on getting much production from Alshon Jeffery or DeSean Jackson. And while rookie Jalen Reagor is seen as a major WR prospect, banking on him to break out from Day 1 is not a good idea.

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