Week 10, and we’re now officially in the second half of the 18-week regular NFL season. If you haven’t been able to do well thus far in DFS, it’s time to turn the page and make right this week. We have so much more information to make good decisions. Plus, hopefully we’re past whatever it was last week that we saw on NFL fields.
This week we get back a couple starting QBs (Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson), while losing another one (Ben Roethlisberger). That should impact their teams’ performances, especially the Steelers, who have not fared well with Mason Rudolph at the helm. This week there are some bargains to be had, and at some positions it may not pay to spend up for the big dogs. So let’s get into the main slate – remember, all values are Draft Kings dollars. Vamonos!
JUSTIN HERBERT (7300) vs MIN That game against Philly was Herbert’s turning the page, and the Vikings have allowed big games to Lamar Jackson and Cooper Rush the last two weeks. Since Week 6 the Vikings are #29 against the QB and allowing 266 passing yards… DAK PRESCOTT (6900) vs ATL That game against Philly was Herbert’s turning the page, and the Vikings have allowed big games to Lamar Jackson and Cooper Rush the last two weeks. Since Week 6 the Vikings are #29 against the QB and allowing 266 passing yards… CARSON WENTZ (5900) vs JAX This is my favorite stack with Michael Pittman. Wentz has thrown at least 2 TDs in each of the last 6 games, and 3 in each of the last 2. Jacksonville is allowing 291.2 passing yards on the season.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (8400) @ AZ Only half the snaps and 18 touches in the first game back when he was on a pitch count. Picture 25 touches against a defense that allowed 188 total yards to Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon 2 weeks ago… JONATHAN TAYLOR (8100) vs JAX He’s on a heater with TDs in 6 straight games and 100+ rush yards in 4 of those games. The Jags are giving up 82.2 rush yards to RBs, and have not seen an elite runner since Week 5 when Derrick Henry went for 29-130-3… NAJEE HARRIS (7900) vs DET Lions are #31 vs RB and allowing 147.4 total yards to the position. Harris has between 25-30 touches in the last 4 games. With no Chase Claypool, that should mean more targets… EZEKIEL ELLIOTT (7000) vs ATL He had 13 touches last week after no less than 20 the last 5 games. The Falcons are allowing 142.1 combined yards to RBs, and in the last 2 weeks Kamara and Hubbard had big games… AARON JONES (6900) vs SEA Seattle is giving up 179.1 total yards to RBs, and Jones has 10+ touches in each game since Week 2… CORDARELLE PATTERSON (6600) @ DAL The last 3 weeks there have been 4 RBs who have gone off against the Cowboys. Here are C-Patt’s touches in the last 4 games: 21, 16, 14 and 15. He’s their RB1… D’ERNEST JOHNSON (4700) @ NE The Week 7 22-146-1 against Denver came up in the memory bank when Nick Chubb was placed on the COVID IR. Dual-threat RBs have been getting plenty of yards against the Patriots in the last 6 games… MARK INGRAM II (4500) @ TEN This is a volume and bargain play. With Alvin Kamara out, Ingram is going to be the focal point of the running game. Tennessee is #6 against the RB, so those yards won’t come easily.
CEEDEE LAMB (7000) vs ATL Lamb has 28 targets in the last 3 games. Falcons A.J. Terrell won’t be traveling with either Dallas WR, so there will be openings for Lamb. Keep an eye on the injury report, because he’s been battling a foot issue… KEENAN ALLEN (7000) vs MIN The Vikings have allowed 3 100+-yard WRs in the last 2 weeks, and Allen has 24 targets in the last 2 games for 18-181-1… MIKE EVANS (6900) @ WAS Who else is going to catch the balls? Chris Godwin is battling through a foot issue, while Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are already ruled out. In the 5 game with at least 8 targets Evans has 75+ yards in each, scoring in 3 games. WFT is #31 against the WR and allowing 298.9 pass yards per game… DIONTAE JOHNSON (6800) @ DET Johnson is averaging nearly 10 targets per game, with Claypool. Big warning here, because Big Ben is out and pitching it for the Steelers is going to be Mason Rudolph. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase & Justin Jefferson all have gone for big games against Detroit… MICHAEL PITTMAN JR. (6300) vs JAX I mentioned Pittman up above. He’s getting 32% of air yards for the Colts, and in the tast 5 games he has 5 TDs. The only game he didn’t score was the 31-3 blowout when the Colts ran the ball heavily. Jacksonville has given up 189 yards on average to WRs the last 3 games… EMMANUEL SANDERS (5700) @ NYJ He’s still getting 34% air yards, and that donut game 2 weeks ago is going to keep fading from the memory. Here are some bargains: DEONTE HARRIS (4000) @ TEN / JAMES WASHINGTON (3500) vs DET / TYLER JOHNSON (3300) @ WAS
KYLE PITTS (5800) vs DAL No Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle or Mark Andrews in the main slate. Pitts has 21 targets in the last 3 games. The Cowboys are #20 against the TE position… PAT FREIRMUTH (3900) VS ATL The man being serenaded by “Muuuuuuuuuuuth!” at Heinz Field has 13 targets and 3 TDs in the last 2 games. Looks like we have another rookie TE to keep an eye on… DAN ARNOLD (3500) vs IND He’s getting the looks, with 17 targets for 10 catches and 128 yards the last 2 weeks. Indy is #29 and TE and has allowed 2nd most TDs to the position at 6