December 15, 2020

LOS WAIVERS WEEK 15: IT’S WINNIN’ TIME!

When it comes to waivers during the fantasy football playoffs, the first priority is to get a player you can insert into your lineup to help you win. It could be an injury replacement, or just taking advantage of an RB who has emerged into a prominent role.

Mitchell Trubisky has 3 great matchups against teams that are among the worst in defending the pass this year.

There’s also depth, where you want to be covered at the skill positions, or maybe even getting a second defense because there’s a matchup one week that you prefer. Then there is blocking.

We’re not talking blocking in the traditional sense of the word. It’s more to block your opponents or upcoming opponents from getting a player who might help them in the playoffs. On a personal example, I have Travis Kelce and Robert Tonyan on one of my playoff teams. Under no circumstances am I ever even considering sitting Kelce, even though Tonyan has emerged as the TE4 through 14 weeks. But in a TE landscape that starts to look pretty bleak after the top half dozen, keeping Tonyan from helping one of my potential opponents is almost as important as starting him. And there’s always the chance he starts in our flex. 

So just like I consistently harp on the importance of offensive line play to fantasy victories, blocking is important during the fantasy playoffs. Here’s Los Waivers for Week 15:

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts @ AZ
16%
If only we’d been able to warn everyone picking Carson Wentz in the top 10 QBs that Hurts would have prime matchups and possibly be a league winner Weeks 15 and 16. The expression that we’d get. But Hurts showed plenty in going for 167 pass yards and 18 carries for 106 rush yards against the staunch Saint D. Up next are the Cardinals, who are #6 in rush yards allowed to QBs since week 10. With Kyler Murray on the other side, this could be a dual-threat QB clinic.

Philip Rivers vs. HOU
41%
I’ve been squawking for weeks that Rivers has been showing that those reports of his career’s end were an exaggeration. He has at least 2 TDs in the last 4 games. Add to it that the Texans are #3 in pass yards per game since week 11. Rivers went for 285 passing yards and 2 TDs just two weeks ago. 

Baker Mayfield @ NYG
42%
Back-to-back 300-yard games for the first time this season, and now those who were singing his praises two years ago are piping up again. His pick against the Ravens on his otherwise magnificent MNF performance was his first since Week 7. This pickup is a week early, as the Giants are #3 against QBs in the last 4 weeks. However, looming in Week 16 are the Jets, who are dead last during that same period. League winner Mayfield?

RUNNING BACK

Gus Edwards vs JAX
41%
Edwards just keeps looming and stealing carries that many fantasy managers would prefer go to J.K. Dobbins. But he’s getting the goal-line carries on a heavy running offense, as he did in punching in a pair of TDs against the Browns. The Jags have allowed 668 rush yards in last 4 weeks, the most in the NFL.

Benny Snell @ CIN
20%
James Conner popped up with an injured quad after his return game against the Bills. Snell did not do much in his games against the Ravens (8 carries for 5 yards), but if Conner is out, Snell would be in line for a good chunk of the carries. The Bengals are #13 in most rush yards allowed since week 11.

WIDE RECEIVER

Keke Coutee @ IND
44%
Who is going to forget that 8-9-141-0 that Coutee put up against Indy two weeks ago? The Colts are#22 in Fantasy PPG allowed to the WR the last four weeks, so they have shown some vulnerability. What does Keke do for an encore?

Nelson Agholor vs LAC
36%
Agholore has 35 targets over his last 4 games, and has scored a pair of TDs during that timeframe. On the other side, the Chargers are #18 in Fantasy PPG allowed to WR for the last four weeks. And since the Raiders have been giving up plenty of points throughout this season, this game has Thursday Night Football shootout potential.

Rashard Higgins @ NYG
13%
Higgins has 19 targets in the last two games, and has score a TD in each. Like with Mayfield, you’re likely avoiding the Giants this week, as they’re #1 against the WR in Fantasy PPG the last four games. But the bottom-dwelling Jets are sitting there in Week 16. Actually, they’re #30 against WRs.

Lynn Bowden vs NE
3%
This is a move fueled totally by attrition. Bowden was called into duty because of the MASH unit that is the Dolphins’ WR corps, and he answered with 7 catches for 82 yards. The Pats are #11 vs WR the last four games, but remember that weird things happen when New England visits Miami in December. Hark back to that multi-lateral walk-off that ended with Kenyan Drake taking it to the house. Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki are both trending toward sitting out this week, and Bowden did lead the Dolphins in targets last week. 

TIGHT ENDS

Irv Smith Jr vs. CHI
7%
With Kyle Rudolph sidelined, Smith caught all 4 targets for 63 yards and a score against Tampa Bay last week. The Bears are #28 defending the TE position the last 4 weeks, even though they have been among the best all season at defending WRs. Look for Smith to continue his breakout if Rudolph is out again..

Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett vs NYJ
48% & 4%

These two are very even in the number of pass routes and targets last 5 games, so it could be a coin flip between the two in a delicious matchup. The Jets are dead last in Fantasy PPG allowed to the TE over the last four weeks. For teams that are losing Mike Gesicki to injury or have been streaming, either of these players could be an option.


Cole Kmet vs MIN
6%
The rookie has taken over the lead in targets, in spite of Graham catching a TD last week. Kmet has seen 7 targets in each of the past two games, and the Vikings are in the middle of teams defending the TE – they’re 17th in Fantasy PPG allowed to the position. 

Statistical sources: Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders and Pro Football Reference.

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