July 1, 2020

Year 2 WRs: Greatness Takes Time

Becoming a great WR takes time. For every Randy Moss coming into the league and setting it on fire with 69 receptions, 1,313 yards and 17 TDs in his rookie year, there are many cases like Jerry Rice. You’ve heard of him, right? He’s the GOAT of WRs. His rookie year in 1985 he caught 49 balls for 927 yards and 3 TDs. The late HC Bill Walsh wondered how to unlock the first-rounder’s potential, so he called up then Mississippi Valley State HC Archie Cooley, who told Walsh to work Rice as hard, if not harder, than anyone else on the team. Rice responded with 86 catches, 1,570 yards and 15 TDs in his Year 2. The rest of his Hall of Fame career was just getting started.

A.J. Brown got a majority of his 52 receptions and 1,051 yards in the second half of the season. He’s ready to continue his rise among the ranks of top WRs in football.

We can’t expect those types of big jumps from so many Year 2 WRs in 2020. But last year D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup and D.J. Chark all took big steps forward toward prominent roles for their teams. The 2020 list is long on players who are going into their sophomore campaigns. We’re going to go in the order in which they were drafted last year, starting with a player who’s gotten quite a bit of hype already.

Marquise Brown (ADP: WR31 / 7th round)
Hollywood was only on the field about 50% of the time for the Ravens’ offensive plays, and he was never 100% during the season after recovering from a Lisfranc fracture in his foot. The talk is that he’s completely healed from that injury, and has added muscle to his frame. The Athletic Raven beat writer Jeff Zrebiec said during a recent interview on the Fantasy Football in 15 podcast that last year Brown looked like a high school player had wandered onto the practice field, then showed the breakaway speed that made him a first-round pick (#25 overall). He already made some big plays on the way to 7 TDs on 46 receptions. As the #1 WR target for the Ravens, a healthy Brown should surpass 100 targets. That would be great value in the 7th round at WR31. 

N’Keal Harry (ADP: WR65 / 14th round)
Injuries limited him last season to just 220 offensive snaps, which was just 19% of the Patriots’ total plays. He finished with just 12 receptions for 105 yards and 2 TDs. At ASU, Harry was a YAC monster. The Patriots didn’t utilize that talent much when he was on the field. With better health and more comfort in an offense that can be complex for a rookie, he figures to be #3 on the depth chart behind Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu.

Deebo Samuel (ADP: WR38 / 8th round)
Oh, what might have been. That Jones fracture on his foot may have ruined what was shaping up to be a breakout campaign building off a great finish to his rookie year. Injuries are piling up for Samuel. He battled a pair of hamstring injuries and suffered a fractured fibula in college. His rookie year, he finished phenomenally with 57 catches for 802 yards. HC Kyle Shanahan does love his WRs, and Samuel was used effectively in a variety of ways, including running the ball out of the backfield. If everything goes right, he can recover and be ready for Week 1. That’s a big IF. This is a situation to follow during training camp. 

A.J. Brown (ADP: WR21 / 4th round)
What a waiver-wire find he was in the 2nd half of last season! From Week 12 on, he had 4 games with 100+ yards and scored 7 TDs. He’s a different breed, built more like an RB at 6-0, 226 lbs. The Titans began using him on jet sweeps, where he scored 2 TDs late in the season, including a 49-yarder during championship week. He’s Ryan Tannehill’s clear #1 option, and there’s not much competition at #2. Figure on his receptions to rise, maybe to the 70-80 range, though the YPC have to go down.

Mecole Hardman (KADP: WR55 / 12th round)
He was on the field just 45.2% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps last season. Still, look at the big-play potential. Hardman’s YPC was 20.7. He touched the ball 30 times total during the season, and scored TDs on 6 of them. The comparisons to Tyreek Hill kept coming from the time he was drafted, and Hill broke out during his 2nd season. Hill, though, had twice the number of targets and 61 receptions as a rookie. Hardman is behind Hill and Travis Kelce for targets, and possibly Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He’ll likely have to take targets from Sammy Watkins to be viable.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (ADP: Undrafted)
He battled leg injuries all last season after being drafted in the 2nd round, #57 overall. Now he’s likely behind Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Desean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery (when healthy) and Miles Sanders for targets. So many people to overtake to get passes from Carson Wentz. There’s a reason he’s going undrafted in ADP. Has to prove his health and start beating out a lot of people for targets. 

Parris Campbell (ADP: WR78 / 20th round)
Injuries knocked him out for much of the 2nd half of last season, so his 18 catches on 24 targets for 127 yards and 1 touchdown look very pedestrian. T.Y. Hilton is the undisputed #1 in Indy, and Michael Pittman Jr. has gotten a lot of love post-draft. Campbell is most likely going to battle Pittman for targets. Do you think the Colts’ brass is lamenting passing on Terry McLaurin (taken 17 picks later)? 

Andy Isabella (ADP: Undrafted)
He’s small (5-9/188 lbs). Now he’s buried on the WR depth chart behind DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. And RB Kenyan Drake and Dan Arnold will also take targets from him. Will he be anything more than a gadget player? AZ GM Steve Keim unfortunately has to see the player drafted 2 spots after Isabella twice a year for the foreseeable future.

DK Metcalf (ADP: WR27 / 5th round)
Are we looking at the beginning of the career of Megatron 2.0? Metcalf was a flatout stud from Week 9 on (except for a Week 16 shutdown at the hands of Patrick Peterson). At 6-4, 229 lbs., Metcalf’s size/strength/speed combo is otherworldly. He and Tyler Lockett form a magnificent WR duo for Russell Wilson. After them, there isn’t much competition for targets. Both WRs should get more than 100 targets apiece this year.

Diontae Johnson (ADP: WR43 / 9th round) 
He’s the darling of draft boards early on. He totaled 52 targets in the 2nd half of the season, good for 33 receptions. And that was with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph throwing to him. While so many were looking for James Washington to bust out, it was Johnson who was the player who emerged as the Steelers’ WR2 after JuJu Smith-Schuster. He’ll also get a boost from a healthy Ben Roethlisberger this season.

Jalen Hurd (ADP: undrafted)
NBC Sports’ Peter King raved about him recently, saying Hurd was the best player on the field during 49er training camp. And that was with Samuel also on the team. A back injury wrecked Hurd’s  rookie season. Word is he’s healthy. And you can’t teach the size 6-4, 227 lbs. and the speed he showed at Baylor. Samuel’s injury may open up a spot for someone to catch passes behind George Kittle. His competition at WR is really just rookie Brandon Aiyuk. 

Terry McLaurin (ADP: WR29 / 6th round)
When he went for 5 catches, 125 yards and 1 TD in his debut game, and the highlight of his 69-yard TD pass where he ran away from everyone was shown all over Twitter, waiver wire claims were placed for him all around. Game-breaking speed, and he’s likely the best offensive player on Washington. The targets should rise significantly this season. If Haskins throws McLaurin’s way 120 times this season, look out.

Hunter Renfrow (ADP: WR70 / 15th round)
He could be a PPR god like Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley. In his last 6 games, the 5th-rounder totaled 41 targets, which over 16 games is 109. Derek Carr likes to throw those intermediate routes, which saw 90 passes land in TE Darren Waller’s hands. Henry Ruggs should take plenty of deep shots, leaving the middle open for players like Renfrow, who is a sneaky producer. 

Darius Slayton (ADP: WR44 / 9th round)
Unlike Brown, Metcalf, McLaurin and Samuel, Slayton (a 5th-rounder in 2019) emerged quietly during the final weeks of the season. His big games in Week 10 (10/121/2) and Week 15 (5/154/2) helped fantasy teams late in the season. He’s in the Giants’ WR1 discussion with Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate. And a healthy Saquon Barkley could be targeted on 100+ balls out of the backfield (he caught 91 in 2018), so this offense figures to fly high. With a low ADP, Slayton looks like a find in the 9th round, when teams are picking their reserve players. 

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