December 11, 2020

ADENTRO Y AFUERA WEEK 14: OUTHOUSE TO THE PENTHOUSE

I mentioned earlier how I had a team that went on a winning streak after starting the season 0-5. Well, that streak lives. My team is 8-5, just took the points title for the league and is roaring into the playoffs. It’s not great management to draft Davante Adams in the back end of the 1st round and later trade RB and WR depth for Travis Kelce. 

James Robinson has gone from undrafted free agent and mostly undrafted in fantasy leagues, to the RB4 through the first 13 weeks of the season.

There’s plenty of ganas and luck that comes into play here. The schedule gods did not smile on us early. Now we have great matchups for Adams, Kelce and our stack of Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown. Time to ride the playoff wave. Anyway, you didn’t want to read a lot about my team, so keeping this intro short. You’re in the playoffs (or playing DFS), so read on who’s Adentro y Afuera for this week.

QUARTERBACKS

ADENTRO
DFS START OF THE WEEK
Ryan Tannehill @ JAX
Tannehill has feasted on bottom-dwelling defenses. In Week 2 against the Jaguars, the Titan QB threw 4 TD passes on just 18 completions. And that was without A.J. Brown in the lineup. Last week’s 389 yards against the Browns continued his great work againstThe Jags have continued to be generous to opposing QBs, as they’re #29 in passing yards allowed. At $6700, that’s a good price for a QB in a blowup spot.

Tom Brady vs MIN
How many times have people tried to count out Brady after a rough outing or two? Then he comes roaring back. Yes, he’s 43, and time is undefeated, but the guess here is that Brady still has plenty arm and a receiving corps that should be as healthy as it’s been all season. The Vikings are #27 in passing yards allowed. This will be a game when Brady will show what he’s been working out during the bye week and unleashes it against Minnesota.

Russell Wilson vs NYJ
Time to #LetRussCook again. The Jets are dead last in the league in Pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and have only 20 sacks on the season. Transitioning a new DC, the Jets are primed for the picking by Wilson. It’s 4 games now that Wilson has not thrown for 300 yards. That streak ends here. Seattle will focus on the pass to counter that the Jets actually defend the run pretty well – #7 in Rush DVOA. 

Justin Herbert vs ATL
Even with the past two games being subpar, Herbert remains the QB9 on the season. The Falcons have improved on defense of late, but part of it comes from the opposition not being elite. Herbert has shown that he’s elite. He’ll pepper Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both of whom have favorable matchups according to PFF. Atlanta is also #3 in the most passing yards allowed this season. 

AFUERA
Kyler Murray @ NYG
I keep getting that image in my head of Murray getting an icepack under his shoulder pads onto his shoulder during a game. And over the past 3 games, Murray is the QB18 and has thrown under 200 yards twice. He’s also run just 15 times combined over that span, after getting into the double digits in each of the previous 4 games. Add to it that the Giants just stymied Wilson, so they know how to defend mobile quarterbacks. They are #6 in Fantasy PPG allowed to the QB.

Kirk Cousins @ TB
What a run for Cousins. He’s thrown for 3 TDs in 4 of the past 5 games, and hit at least 300 yards a trio of times during that span. During that stretch, only Chicago would be considered a formidable defense. The Bucs leaked yards and points to the Rams and Chiefs the past couple games, but they still have a young and talented secondary that has the team #8 against the pass, according to Football Outsiders. Cousins has utilized Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to perfection during this hot run, but they’re stepping up in weight class here. 

RUNNING BACKS

ADENTRO
DFS PLAY OF THE WEEK
Derrick Henry @ JAX
At $8700, Henry is no bargain, but he’s cheaper than Dalvin Cook ($9400) and Christian McCaffrey ($9200), both of whom have tougher matchups. Playing in Jacksonville, it won’t be the winter weather where defenders make “business decisions” on how to tackle Henry. The bruising RB tallied only 60 yards last week, but before that surpassed 100 yards in 4 of 5 games. Jacksonville has allowed the third-most rushing yards on the season at 1643. That’s in 12 games. 

James Robinson vs TEN
This game could devolve toward the Neanderthal times of the 1960s, when teams thought that when it came to passing that there were 3 outcomes. And 2 of them were bad. Robinson would be the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year in a non-Justin Herbert season, and already tagged the Titans for 102 yards and a score earlier. The Titans are #25 in Fantasy PPG allowed to the RB. Here’s to you, Mr. Robinson.

START OF THE WEEK
David Montgomery vs. HOU
Can Montgomery repeat being RB1 for a second week in a row? In the past two weeks he’s broken loose for 254 total yards and 3 TDs. I’m not going to say he’s brought back memories of the late great Walter Payton, but Montgomery’s play sure has been sweet. Houston is #31 in defending the run, and will be traveling to play in chilly Chicago. Can you say repeat?

D’Andre Swift vs GB
This game is shaping as a soft return for Swift, who has missed the past 3 games with a concussion and later an illness. The Packers are #30 in Fantasy PPG allowed to RBs. In his last 2 games, Swift has amassed 21 and 16 opportunities, clearly taking the lead caballo role in the backfield. He had 149 total yards and a score in Week 10, his most recent game. Former OC Darrell Bevell is leading the team now, so the guess here is that he’ll keep feeding the player who is clearly the most skilled in the backfield. 

James Conner @  BUF
Conner is returning after missing the past 2 games on the COVID IR. The Steelers missed him, as Benny Snell had just 5 yards on 8 carries against Washington. Conner had 89 yards in Week 11 at Jacksonville, and this is another inviting matchup. The Bills are allowing the fifth-most YPC allowed with 4.7. The Steelers need to balance out their ratio of runs to passes, as they ran the ball just 21 times and passed 53. 

AFUERA
Miles Sanders vs NO
After being touted as the incumbent lead caballo for the Eagles, Sanders has just 46 yards rushing in his past 2 games. And one of those matchups was against the Packers, and we’ve talked about how they defend the run. The Saints are allowing the fewest Fantasy PPG allowed to RBs, and have been arguably the hottest defense in the game the past month. They have given up just 44 total points the past 5 games. 

Peyton Barber vs SF
You used a waiver wire pick or finished up the FAAB to grab Barber after you lost Gibson. Your reward is to have him go up against the 49ers, who are #9 in rushing yards allowed. Barber is hardly going to make people forget about Gibson, and in a tough matchup, he’s just a desperation play. 

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

ADENTRO
Corey Davis @ JAX
Here’s a comparison of two players from Weeks 7-13:

Player A: WR7 / 27 catches, 48 targets, 546 yards and 5 TDs

Player B: WR8 / 38 catches, 51 targets, 595 yards and 3 TDs

Player A is A.J. Brown. Player B is Davis. That’s how close these two players have been these past 7 games. Brown is considered a unicorn manchild, who can wreck a defense on a single play. Davis has become more than a reliable sidekick, and showed it as going WR1 overall in Week 13 with 11 catches for 182 yards and a TD. Jacksonville is #28 against the WR in Fantasy PPG. Davis is also $1600 cheaper on Draft Kings. 

D.J. Chark vs JAX
Mi buen amigo and Fantasy Jedi Master Mauricio Gutierrez has instinctively made me add “do, do, do do,” after saying Chark’s name, mimicking the Baby Shark song. Just can’t shake it. It’s been an injury-riddled season for Chark, though he might be rounding into shape for the finish. He ran 44 routes on 47 passes last week, and Mike Glennon threw 10 deep balls. That’s Chark’s specialty. If he can cash in a long shot or two, look out against a secondary that is #26 in Fantasy PPG allowed to the WR position.

Allen Robinson II vs HOU
Do you see a recurring theme here in this game. Houston’s defense has been gashed all season, and just lost Bradley Roby to a PED suspension. Even with Mitchell Trubsky pitching it, Robinson is very much a threat to score whenever he touches the ball. Only once this season has Robinson seen fewer than 7 targets in a game. The Texans are #22 in Fantasy PPG allowed to WRs. It’s all set up for Robinson on a cold day, but one without wind or rain.

Tyler Lockett vs NYJ
It’s pretty clear that D.K. Metcalf has grown into a super freak WR1 who will be drafted in the back half of the 1st round next year – early 2nd round at the latest. Lockett? He’s settled in as Robin, and hasn’t had more than table scraps the past 6 games since his 200-yard, 3-TD explosion in Week 7. Lockett has a delicious matchup against the Jet secondary that has allowed the second-most passing yards this season. Russ will cook, and Lockett will eat. 

DFS BARGAIN OF THE WEEK
Michael Gallup @ CIN
I’ve eaten plenty of mierda from my cousin Ricky for making Gallup one of my preseason picks for the season. Taking a shot again. Gallup has 10+ targets only twice this season, though once was last week. And he had 8 the previous game. Andy Dalton is looking for Gallup, and found him 7 times for 86 yards and a score against a tough Baltimore secondary. The Bengals are not in the same league as the Ravens, as they’re #25 in allowing 3087 passing yards and 23 TDs. Good spot for Gallup.

Chris Godwin vs. MIN
After having pins removed from his previously broken finger and being weeks away from hamstring issues that derailed his early season production, this is probably the most healthy that Godwin has been all season. Don’t forget, this was the WR2 last year, and that was with missing the final 2 games of the season. He also has one of the best matchups of the week against CB Jeff Gladney. The Vikings are #27 in passing yards allowed. With Mike Evans nursing a hamstring injury, this could be a big week for Godwin.

AFUERA
Henry Ruggs vs IND
From the penthouse to the outhouse, Ruggs catches a walk-off Hail Mary one week and sees a Rhodes Closed sign the next. Xavier Rhodes is waiting for him, and the CB is #5 in PFF’s player grades at the position. Add to it that Ruggs’ target share is low, as he hasn’t received more than 5 looks in a game this season.

Marvin Jones vs GB
Jones is another player coming off a big game – 8 receptions for 116 yards and 1 TD – and drawing a tough matchup. With Kenny Golladay ruled out, Jones is going to see a lot of Jaire Alexander, the #3 CB according to PFF. Jones is in for a dogfight all afternoon. 

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